Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 73

At this point you probably don't need me to tell you that things aren't going well. Kansas hospital leaders are sounding that alarm almost daily. We have not matched last year's peak of COVID hospitalizations yet, but they keep climbing. With more patients suffering from flu and other illnesses this winter, hospitals are already filling fast. Meanwhile new COVID cases continue to climb rather steadily, suggesting no relief around the corner. Omicron, which is here but probably not in huge numbers yet, could make it all worse, unless we get more people vaccinated and boosted.

The Good: The infection reproduction rate, Rt, remained at 1.1. It's the best news we have this week, but still not great, because as long as that number's above 1.0 the overall number of active infections will continue to rise. 

The Bad: Test positivity in Kansas rose from 47.3% to 48.3%, according to Johns Hopkins. That's second-worst in the country behind Wisconsin. Our testing numbers remain elevated from where they were a few weeks ago, but seem to have kind of leveled off. 

The Ugly: Here's the hospital situation broken down in chunks:

• Statewide COVID hospitalizations are up from 668 to 758, according to the Kansas Hospital Association.
• Cases in ICU statewide fell from 201 to 199.
• Hospitalizations in the Wichita are went from 159 to 169, and cases in ICU there went from 57 to 59. 
• Hospitalizations in the Kansas City area rose from 600 to 727, and cases in ICU there rose from 139 to 150.
• ICU availability in the KC area fell from 13.24% to 12.75%. 

Bonus:  Omicron will hit hard and fast. But the good news is, once we get through the surge, the decline should also be rapid. Breakthrough infections are a given with omicron, but booster shots can reduce them substantially and those that occur in fully vaccinated people are not likely to be serious, unless they're old or immunocompromised. 

Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 72

We are smack in the middle of the fall/winter surge now. Thanks to vaccines our case numbers are not as high as they were last year at this time, but they're now the second-highest they've ever been, surpassing even this summer's Delta-driven surge. Delta is still circulating, people are increasingly gathering indoors, and the air is colder and drier which allows respiratory viruses to spread more easily. It's a dangerous combo. If this year's fall/winter surge follows the same pattern as last year's, we may see a bit of a lull in new cases in the next week or two, as the Thanksgiving infections resolve, then another spike after Christmas/New Year's, followed by a steady drop off in January and February. But no real relief for hospitals until probably mid-to-late February. 

The Good: Test positivity fell from 52.6% to 47.3%, according to Johns Hopkins. To be clear, that is still quite high (even based on Hopkins' methodology, which skews higher than others). It's still second-highest in the country, in fact, behind only Iowa. But there's been a clear increase in testing in Kansas. We've more than doubled our per-capita testing rate and, though we're still nowhere near the states that are testing the most, we're now ahead of seven states that are testing less. So, progress. Knowing who's infected is the first step to slowing the spread. This all comes with the caveat that at-home tests are making it increasingly hard to calculate test positivity (because results from at-home tests aren't usually reported, especially if they're negative). 

The Bad: The infection reproduction rate, Rt, rose from 1.0 to 1.1. This is to be expected. Cases are clearly on the rise. In fact, there's a good chance the true Rt is even higher than 1.1; but the increase in testing allows us to have a little more confidence in this number going forward.

The Ugly: COVID-19 hospitalizations are rising, and fast. They're up statewide this week from 545 to 668, according to the Kansas Hospital Association. Remember how I said last week that we were likely to see a surge in ICU admissions? Well, they're up from 138 to 201. The increase seems to be mainly in eastern Kansas. Wichita's hospitalizations actually dropped from 172 to 159 (and cases in ICU dropped from 58 to 57). But the KC metro's COVID hospitalizations rose from 505 to 600 this week (that includes hospitals on both the Kansas and Missouri side of the state line. Only 186 of those are included in the Kansas Hospital Association's statewide total) and ICU cases went from 128 to 139. ICU availability in the KC metro has fallen to 13.24%. Anything below 20% is dangerous. Anything below 10% is critical and probably means some patients aren't getting the care they need. 

Bonus: The picture on Omicron is becoming increasingly clear. It's more transmissible than past variants, but not more severe (and may even be less severe). It has more immune evasiveness than previous variants, but two doses of Pfizer or Moderna plus a booster or a prior infection seem to still provide pretty robust protection. So get those boosters if you haven't already.

Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 71

Well, we're about a week out from Thanksgiving and we seem to be experiencing a significant spike in new cases as a state. It's having a worrisome effect on our hospital capacity. I know everyone is tired of hearing they should get vaccinated, mask up and social distance, but if we don't start doing more of all three, it could be a rough holiday season. Our COVID numbers are not as bad as last year's deadly winter surge, but this year we have more flu (probably because people have taken off their masks) and other illnesses to deal with at the same time. 

The Good: The infection reproduction rate, Rt, is still estimated at 1.0 (with a potential range of 0.86 to 1.3, which is a huge variance because of our lack of testing). But even that bit of good news is probably short-lived. Given the rate of new cases in the past few days I think once the data reporting catches up, that Rt number is almost certainly going to rise.

The Bad: Hospitals are increasingly crunched. COVID hospitalizations statewide are up from 478 last week to 545 this week, according to the Kansas Hospital Association.  That's only about half of the last year's peak hospitalizations (thank you, vaccines) but still a lot to deal with. Oddly, ICU cases are down, but only from 144 to 138. Given the increase in hospitalizations, I would expect that to change over the next week. Sedgwick County's ICUs are overloaded. COVID hospitalizations there jumped from 135 to 172, and cases in ICU went from 50 to 58. Kansas City area hospitalizations rose from 342 to 505 and cases in ICU went from 88 to 128. ICU availability in the metro area is down to 15%.

The Ugly: Test positivity rose from 42.4% to 52.6%, according to Johns Hopkins.  That's second-worst in the country, ahead of only Iowa. Only Iowa and Idaho are running fewer tests per capita. Vermont, the nation's leader in testing, is now running 22 times more per capita tests than Kansas.