Twins 2010 hopes rest on Liriano

Like most everyone else in MN I was excited about the way the Twins ended the regular season — winning 17 of their last 21 including a pressure-packed victory against Zack Greinke (who ought to be the AL Cy Young, team record be damned) on the final weekend and an extra-inning thriller against the Tigers in Game 163. It was a great run and provided some nice "in-your-face" redemption for much-maligned guys like Nick Punto and Delmon Young, who played big roles. But my main thought was to savor it while it lasted, because I figured it wouldn't continue in the playoffs.

The playoffs are generally won by teams with power pitching, and the Twins just didn't have that. They didn't have a legitimate ace, so they figured to be battling uphill against whoever they faced. Throw in the fact that it was the Yankees, who went out and bought two legitimate aces in the offseason, and the Twinks were the longest of long shots. So how can they change that next year? There's no simple answer.

Some in the media have suggested a new manager, citing Ron Gardenhire's dismal career playoff record. But the manager can't come in for a key strikeout with the bases loaded and one out. Just getting the Twins to the playoffs this year was a monumental task for Gardy. He had to deal with a starting rotation ravaged by injuries and inconsistency, a bullpen that occasionally couldn't find the strike zone with a Garmin (Jessie Crain/Jose Mijares ring a bell?) and a line-up with too many outfielders and not enough infielders (how long can a manager be expected to mask significant holes at second, short AND third?). Down the stretch Gardy showed that if you get him the players (Pavano, Cabrera, and a couple mediocre bullpen arms), he'll make it work. They don't even have to be great players, just a slight step up from Alexi Casilla and Armando Gabino. Gardenhire's not the problem.

Joe Nathan's not the problem, either. I've also seen it suggested that the Twins should jettison him and his big contract after his horrendous letdown in Game 2 against the Yanks. But it's hard to argue that the guy's washed up after he had 47 saves and a 2.10 ERA this season. The Twins problem has generally been that they don't get to Nathan with a lead often enough in the playoffs. He has two years left under contract and while the Twins probably shouldn't be thinking extension (he'll be 36 at the end of it), they shouldn't be thinking "dead weight," either.

There's some issues with the line-up for next year. The Twins either need to re-sign Cabrera or find somebody else to play shortstop (one of the Toronto guys, Scutaro or McDonald, could be an option). Unlike many people, I think Punto is fine at second. Yes, he is often a black hole in the batting order, but most teams can afford one of those, especially if he is a dynamic defensive player who can bunt runners over reliably (he needs to stop sliding into first, though, that is getting beyond annoying). Third base either needs to go to Danny Valencia if he's ready or maybe think about moving Cuddyer over there to ease the outfield jam. He's obviously got the arm for it. Or there's always Brendan Harris in a pinch, though he seems better suited for spot duty at second.

With a few tweaks, the Twins should be fine offensively and defensively. But their playoff hopes still rest with the front of their rotation and there's no easy answer for that. Even if they do get Pavano back, he's more like a No. 2 or 3 playoff starter, not an ace. Ditto for Scott Baker. The Twins need another guy up front. But where do they get him? There's not a lot of great starting pitchers on the free agent market and even if there were, we all know the Twins wouldn't come close to winning the bidding wars for them. There's probably not enough top-flight prospects left in the system to swing a trade for a guy like Roy Halladay for one year, either.

As far as I can tell, the Twins hopes rest on the surgically-repaired left elbow of Francisco Liriano. Yes, Liriano was pretty bad this season (5-13 with a 5.80 ERA), but it often takes more than one season to recover from Tommy John surgery. There's still a chance that, with an entire off-season of conditioning, Liriano will regain his muscle, those crucial four or five MPH on his fastball and some of the movement on his once-devastating slider.

If he can get back to 2006 form (and remember he's only 25), then the Twins suddenly have that intimidating ace who strikes fear in the opposition and puts a swagger in his teammates. They have that strikeout pitcher who can rise up and shut down a two-on, one-out rally. And they have a suddenly-formidable playoff rotation of Liriano, Baker, Pavano, Blackburn. As No. 1-2-3 starters, Baker, Pavano and Blackburn are less than average. As No. 2-3-4, they stack up with almost anybody.

Liriano's resurgence. It's a slim hope, but without it the Twins are probably destined for yet another "struggle mightily to make the playoffs only to be eliminated immediately" season.