Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 12

 

Obviously, it's been quite a week for COVID. With everything happening in DC, the news looks pretty mundane here in Kansas, but it's still worth keeping an eye on how things are going closer to home.

The Good: Last week we saw COVID-19 cases in Kansas ICUs rise to a record 121. This week that figure was down to 103, which is still a tad high but largely in line with where it's been the last few months. It should be noted, though, that only 120 hospitals reported data this week, as opposed to 130 last week. But available ICU capacity remained almost unchanged at 37% (as opposed to 36% last week). ICU numbers can fluctuate a lot from day to day, or even within the same day. People get better and are discharged from ICU, people get worse and are admitted to ICU, people in ICU pass away. So it's important to focus on the long-term trend, rather than just one data point. Right now, that trend still looks pretty stable (but a bit high). 

The Neutral: The estimated infection reproduction rate, or Rt, is unchanged from last week at 1.01 in Kansas. Interestingly, though, the folks who calculate it on the site I use have reduced the low end of the possible range from 0.80 to 0.77 (while leaving the high end at 1.21). That seems like a good sign, potentially.

The Ugly: Test positivity rose again last week to 15.9%, according to Johns Hopkins. That's seventh-worst in the nation, ahead of only Mississippi, South Dakota, Idaho, Wisconsin, Iowa and Missouri. Remember, when test positivity is above 5%, there's a good chance you're missing a lot of COVID-19 cases. Which of course makes tracing and isolating cases impossible and creates a "silent spread."

Bonus: This week's bonus comes from the blog (self-promotional, I know). It's a satirical homage to the idea that it's not the government's place to enact any COVID-19 restrictions.