Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 24

 

The statistical indicators headed into the holiday weekend were pretty good, overall, but our hospital capacity cushion remains small (especially in Wichita), so hopefully we won't see much of a post-holiday surge of new cases. Already, many more Kansans are without their loved ones this year. We recorded another 500 deaths in the last two weeks, topping 2,500 just before Christmas. We've been averaging 40 to 50 COVID-19 deaths every day in Kansas lately. And that probably won't slow down markedly for another week or two, because deaths are a lagging indicator. 

The Good: The infection reproduction rate, or Rt, fell to 0.95. That's a bit lower than last week, and two straight weeks below 1.0 is a good signal that we've reached the peak of infections and are trending downward. It will take some time for that to produce markedly better hospital capacity, however.

The Bad: Hospital ICU capacity was 21% statewide as of Dec. 23, according to the Kansas Hospital Association. That's a little better than the week before, but there are still some trouble spots, like south-central Kansas, where Wichita's ICUs remain over capacity. 

The Ugly: Test positivity was 29.5% this week, according to Johns Hopkins. That, too, is better than it has been, but still nowhere near where we need it to be. It's the sixth-worst mark in the country (behind Idaho, Pennsylvania, Alabama, South Dakota and Iowa).

Bonus: We're making gains, heading in the right direction, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if we lose some of those gains in the coming weeks, at least temporarily. Because the coronavirus spread is actually sort of predictable. Take a look at this chart of daily new cases from the KC Star:

Notice how cases rise fast throughout November. That's the autumn/winter spike that public health officials had warned would probably come. Then Kansas City area counties put new restrictions in place and, after about one incubation period, new infections start to trend down. Then Thanksgiving comes, with gatherings that public health officials warned could spread the virus and, about one incubation period later, there's another spike. Thankfully, that spike is pretty small and already seems to have petered out. But public health officials have been warning that gatherings for Christmas, New Year's, and other holidays could lead to yet another spike. Hopefully we are listening to them. Because it seems like they've been right a lot lately.