Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 27

Things are really looking up this week! Any new infections from Christmas and/or New Year's gatherings should have shown up by now, and this week's metrics suggest that the ripple effect from those holiday infections may not be long-lasting. Things could still go bad again, especially with new, more contagious variants of COVID-19 out there and some rural counties deciding to lift their mask rules. But right now, there's reason for optimism. All of our measures except deaths are improving, and deaths are always the last trend to change.

The Good: The infection reproduction rate, or Rt, fell from 1.04 all the way to 0.97. That's excellent. We still have a relatively high number of infections floating around in the state, but if we can keep the Rt at that level (or even lower), we could soon get it back down to where it was in July, or at least September. 

The Not-bad: Kansas had 25% of its ICU beds available as of Jan. 15, according to the Kansas Hospital Association. That's manageable, especially compared to last week's 19%. Getting it to a stable 30% would give us some cushion in case one of the new variants makes its way here (which is likely at some point, given the prevalence of interstate travel). The Wichita area still has a stubbornly high number of COVID cases in its ICUs, however, and there are signs of increasing spread in southeast Kansas as well.

The Ugly: Test positivity in Kansas was 28.1% this week, according to Johns Hopkins. Let's be real, that's still ugly (sixth-worst in the country behind Idaho, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Alabama and South Dakota). But it's a big step up from where we were a week earlier (37.8%). Fewer confirmed cases + lower test positivity = reduction in overall caseloads.

Bonus: We've all seen dire news reports about COVID in California lately. And it certainly is bad there. But as bad as it's been there, on a per capita basis Kansas has still been experiencing more COVID-19 deaths. Over the seven-day period that ended Jan. 15, California averaged 14 deaths per 1 million population, per day. Kansas averaged 16. Like I said, deaths always lag new cases and hospitalizations. But how is it possible that hospitals in Los Angeles are totally overwhelmed, but a greater proportion of Kansans are dying of COVID-19?  

The answer may have to do with hospital beds, both the number and the type. Kansas ranks near the top of all states in hospital beds per capita. California ranks near the bottom. Which means that when COVID comes to each state, one (Kansas), has a lot more capacity to hospitalize patients than the other (California). California's hospitals run out of space faster. But all hospital beds aren't the same. Many of Kansas' beds are in small, rural hospitals with no ICUs and minimal staff trained to handle critical care. This means that even during the worst of the pandemic, EMS could probably can find a bed for you somewhere, if they call around enough. But it may not be a bed that comes with the level of care that your condition requires. Which may be how we end up with more people dying, per capita, even if we don't have ambulances circling for hours and people setting up tents to treat patients in hospital parking lots. It's a complicated web of resources, and the best thing we can do is just try not to overtax it.