Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 46

 

For the last several months we've seen COVID-19 cases in Kansas steadily decline because of a barrage of vaccinations, as well as likely seasonal factors (respiratory illnesses don't spread as well in warmer, more humid air). But COVID is still with us. Vaccination rates have slowed considerably even though fewer than half of all Kansans have gotten even one dose (and only about 38% have completed their series). A significant percentage of our population is still vulnerable, and there is evidence that the decline in new cases has now leveled off. 

The Good: Hospital ICU availability remained at 30% this week, according to the Kansas Hospital Association. Every region in the state had at least 20%. I'm not particularly concerned about our hospitals being overwhelmed any more, unless we get into the fall (when respiratory illnesses tend to surge) and there are still a lot of unvaccinated Kansans. Seasonality buys us plenty of time, but it's wasted if we don't get more shots in arms.

The Bad: Test positivity was 12% this week, according to Johns Hopkins. That's actually better than last week (13.3%), but still pretty high. Only Idaho is higher. No other state is above 10%.

The Ugly: The infection reproduction rate is now estimated to be 1.0. If that's accurate it means that every infection will cause another infection and the number of new infections in Kansas will remain at roughly 170 per day. Our health care system can handle that. But odds are dozens of those infections will cause severe illness, which could have lifelong effects. And there will be some deaths. And nearly all of that could be prevented at this point. 

Bonus: The Washington Post has rolled out a fascinating tool that shows there are now two Americas when it comes to the pandemic: the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. New cases, hospitalizations and deaths are plummeting among the vaccinated (as you would expect), but among the unvaccinated they really aren't. In Kansas, for example, the rate of new cases for unvaccinated people is roughly the same as it was on March 11 for all residents (when nearly all residents, except health care workers and nursing home residents, were unvaccinated). The rate of COVID-related hospitalizations for unvaccinated Kansans is roughly the same as the rate for all residents on March 7. The COVID death rate for unvaccinated Kansans is roughly the same as the rate for all residents on May 9 — a less dramatic difference that I would guess is attributable to two things: new cases are now more likely to be among younger people and deaths are a lagging indicator. 

It is undeniably true that by getting most of our elderly people vaccinated we have lowered the number of COVID deaths dramatically even if younger people aren't getting vaccinated. But that does not seem to have made much of a dent in overall cases or even hospitalizations among unvaccinated people. In fact, there are some counties in Missouri that are now seeing their highest infection rates of the entire pandemic. That means we still don't have high enough vaccination rates to provide "herd immunity" so those unvaccinated people (some of whom aren't able to be vaccinated for medical reasons) are protected as well. If there are people in your life who have not gotten their shot, please encourage them to do so, for themselves and for their communities. 

Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 45

I know most people are done with the pandemic. Masks are coming off, crowds are gathering. I get it. The weather is nice and we've been at this for more than a year now. But the numbers suggest that the pandemic is not done with us here in Kansas. We only have about 35% of our state population (including kids) fully vaccinated, according to Johns Hopkins. I still think that's enough, combined with summer's seasonal dip in viral transmissions, to keep our hospitals in good shape, but I really hope we get a lot more people vaccinated by fall. Meanwhile we are still experiencing some COVID deaths (19 of them last week), most of which are entirely preventable at this point.

The Good: Hospital ICU availability was 30% statewide this week, according to the Kansas Hospital Association (which is apparently back to updating its dashboard every week). That's plenty, and the lowest region was 21% (south-central region, of course), which is still solid. The one thing to watch, though: our low for number of people hospitalized with COVID was 228 in late March/early April. Every week since then it has remained steady at about 250-350 (it was 275 this week). It would be better, obviously, if it had kept going down.

The Bad: The infection reproduction rate rose from 0.94 to 0.96 this week. That still means overall cases are decreasing, but they're decreasing slowly and we're getting perilously close to the point at which our number of total active cases would be increasing again. There's really no reason for that to happen, given the effectiveness of the vaccines. But people have to get the vaccines for them to work. 

The Ugly: Test positivity rose from 11.2% to 13.3% this week, according to Johns Hopkins. That's the second worst in the country (behind Idaho) and wipes out all the gains we made in this category the week before. It is also means that the rise in the infection reproduction rate is probably accurate, and even may be underestimated, because there may be a bunch of infections out there that we're missing by not testing enough. 

Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 44

We seem to have settled in to a pattern of about 1,500 to 1,600 new cases per week and 250 to 260 Kansans hospitalized for COVID-19 at any given time. Those are manageable numbers, but at this point in the pandemic, with seasonal factors trending our way and vaccines readily available, one would hope that the state would still be trending downward on both measures. If the current pattern becomes the new normal we will have hundreds of unnecessary deaths every year. Instead, why not shoot for zero new cases, aka total elimination?

The Good: Test positivity dropped from 13.3% to 11.2% this week, according to Johns Hopkins. That's still too high (and fifth-worst in the country behind Alabama, Idaho, Mississippi and Iowa), but it's a healthy decline in a metric that has been stubbornly high.

The Bad: Hospital ICU capacity was 26% statewide as of May 12, according to the Kansas Hospital Association (it appears that the hospital association is now updating its dashboard once a month rather than once a week, so this metric will appear here intermittently). The foremost trouble spot was again the south-central region, at 14% capacity (including about 12.5% in Sedgwick County, which was up a tick from last week). It would be best if every region had a cushion of at least 20%. 

The Ugly: The infection reproduction rate ticked up from 0.92 to 0.94. That's still on the right track for overall active cases to keep decreasing. But with widespread availability of highly effective vaccines, there's no reason this number should go anywhere but down. Given the good news on test positivity, though, it's possible this number only went up this week because we tested more and therefore identified more cases.  

Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 43

 

Kansas passed 5,000 COVID-19 deaths this week. The pace of deaths has slowed considerably over the past couple months and there's reason for optimism that we won't hit 6,000 unless the illness is allowed to fester for years to come. But vaccination resistance means it may well fester that long. We're getting into the realm of vaccine availability now where nearly every COVID death that occurs is entirely preventable. Yet the threat of COVID, while much reduced, has not been eliminated. As of May 7, only about one-third of Kansans were fully vaccinated. 

The Good: The infection reproduction rate, or Rt, dropped from 0.97 to 0.92. As I've said many times before, you have to be careful with this number, because its precision depends on testing, and in Kansas we've never tested enough to be super confident in the exact number. But the downward trajectory is encouraging, and it makes sense: as more Kansans are vaccinated, each COVID infection should result in fewer other infections. 

The Bad: It's getting harder and harder to get a good handle on hospital capacity statewide. The Kansas Hospital Association hasn't posted an updated data dashboard since April 23 and KDHE's hospital capacity tab seems to be on the fritz. So the best I can do is use a couple of regional dashboards from Wichita and KC for reference. Those are decent, if imperfect, indicators because the vast majority of ICU beds in the state are in those two regions. 

As of May 7, the Kansas City region was operating at about 26% of ICU beds available — a solid number. About 11% of the region's ICU beds were being used by COVID patients (compared to about 30% at the height of the fall surge). But there are still 60-some people fighting for their lives in KC hospitals because of COVID. 

As usual, things are a little dicier in Sedgwick County. As of May 3, the county's ICUs had only about 9% availability. About 14% of the county's ICU beds were being used by COVID patients and the 29 people in ICU because of COVID was the highest number there since Feb. 22. There is a very clear upward trajectory of both COVID-related hospitalizations and ICU admissions in Sedgwick County over the past six weeks or so. Hopefully it will level off soon.

The Ugly: Test positivity in Kansas barely moved once again, falling only from 13.8% to 13.3%, according to Johns Hopkins. Once again that's third worst in the country behind only Idaho and Iowa. California and Vermont are at 1.0%, according to Hopkins, and Kentucky is down to 0.8%. It can be done. 

   

Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 42

The data points are confusing this week. New cases appear to be rising, even though testing is falling, which is a bad combo. Yet the estimated reproduction rate (Rt) has gone down. Hospitalizations appear to have gone up (according to KDHE), and yet it's hard to confirm because the Kansas Hospital Association hasn't updated its data since April 23, and capacity still seems strong. 

The Good: The estimated infection reproduction rate dropped from 1.1 to 0.97. That's great, if accurate. But I'm a little skeptical, given the trends in new cases and hospitalizations. The Wichita area in particular seems to be on a concerning trajectory of new cases. It's very possible that this number is artificially depressed due to lack of testing. But on its face, it's good.

The Bad: Hospital ICU capacity was 36% (with 135 hospitals reporting) as of April 28, according to KDHE. That's a good number, but the COVID-specific trends are bad. COVID-related hospitalizations and ICU admissions, while both still much lower than they were in the winter, are trending up. 

The Ugly: Test positivity rose from 11.3% to 13.8% this week, according to Johns Hopkins. That's third-worst in the country behind Idaho and Iowa. And it's no surprise, given that some Kansas parents are apparently refusing to get their kids tested, even if they're symptomatic, because they don't want to the deal with the hassles of isolation if the kids test positive. We're all tired of COVID mitigation measures, but that's just irresponsible and selfish (not to mention potentially bad for the kid's health. There are some treatments for COVID now, if it's confirmed).