Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 46

 

For the last several months we've seen COVID-19 cases in Kansas steadily decline because of a barrage of vaccinations, as well as likely seasonal factors (respiratory illnesses don't spread as well in warmer, more humid air). But COVID is still with us. Vaccination rates have slowed considerably even though fewer than half of all Kansans have gotten even one dose (and only about 38% have completed their series). A significant percentage of our population is still vulnerable, and there is evidence that the decline in new cases has now leveled off. 

The Good: Hospital ICU availability remained at 30% this week, according to the Kansas Hospital Association. Every region in the state had at least 20%. I'm not particularly concerned about our hospitals being overwhelmed any more, unless we get into the fall (when respiratory illnesses tend to surge) and there are still a lot of unvaccinated Kansans. Seasonality buys us plenty of time, but it's wasted if we don't get more shots in arms.

The Bad: Test positivity was 12% this week, according to Johns Hopkins. That's actually better than last week (13.3%), but still pretty high. Only Idaho is higher. No other state is above 10%.

The Ugly: The infection reproduction rate is now estimated to be 1.0. If that's accurate it means that every infection will cause another infection and the number of new infections in Kansas will remain at roughly 170 per day. Our health care system can handle that. But odds are dozens of those infections will cause severe illness, which could have lifelong effects. And there will be some deaths. And nearly all of that could be prevented at this point. 

Bonus: The Washington Post has rolled out a fascinating tool that shows there are now two Americas when it comes to the pandemic: the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. New cases, hospitalizations and deaths are plummeting among the vaccinated (as you would expect), but among the unvaccinated they really aren't. In Kansas, for example, the rate of new cases for unvaccinated people is roughly the same as it was on March 11 for all residents (when nearly all residents, except health care workers and nursing home residents, were unvaccinated). The rate of COVID-related hospitalizations for unvaccinated Kansans is roughly the same as the rate for all residents on March 7. The COVID death rate for unvaccinated Kansans is roughly the same as the rate for all residents on May 9 — a less dramatic difference that I would guess is attributable to two things: new cases are now more likely to be among younger people and deaths are a lagging indicator. 

It is undeniably true that by getting most of our elderly people vaccinated we have lowered the number of COVID deaths dramatically even if younger people aren't getting vaccinated. But that does not seem to have made much of a dent in overall cases or even hospitalizations among unvaccinated people. In fact, there are some counties in Missouri that are now seeing their highest infection rates of the entire pandemic. That means we still don't have high enough vaccination rates to provide "herd immunity" so those unvaccinated people (some of whom aren't able to be vaccinated for medical reasons) are protected as well. If there are people in your life who have not gotten their shot, please encourage them to do so, for themselves and for their communities.