Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 52

 

COVID-19 continues to rage through Missouri, particularly in the southwest part of the state, where hospitals may be only a couple weeks away from having to turn away patients. New cases are clearly on the upswing in Kansas now as well. But we are not yet seeing a marked increase in hospitalizations. 

The Good: Hospital ICU capacity improved from 35% to 37% this week, according to KDHE. There were 143 total COVID hospitalizations as of July 7, including 51 in ICU. That's roughly in line with last week's numbers. 

The Bad: The infection reproduction rate, Rt, has risen from 1.0 to 1.1 this week. This was pretty much inevitable, given the rise in diagnosed cases. If the number of new cases is rising, then Rt will rise as well. The Rt rates in nearby states (1.3 in Oklahoma and Nebraska, 1.2 in Arkansas and Missouri) are also concerning. 

The Ugly: The test positivity rate in Kansas, as measured by Johns Hopkins, rocketed up again from 16.8% to 23.8% this week. That's the second straight dramatic increase and it means that even though we know that new cases are rising, we don't even have a good handle on how fast they're rising.   There have been anecdotal reports in the news about symptomatic people declining to be tested for COVID. That means a bigger share of the people who ARE being tested would be those who are hospitalized, which would obviously drive up test positivity rates. Declining to be tested if you have symptoms or know you've been exposed is not only bad for your own treatment plan, it's also grossly irresponsible to your family, friends and neighbors.