Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 57

I skipped last week's blog because I was on vacation and, honestly, I needed a mental break from this stuff. Here's what you need to know this week: things are bad in Kansas, hospitals are pretty full in several key parts of the state, but there are indications that things could get better soon. After a month of rapid rise, new infections in the Kansas City area are starting to level off. They're leveling off at the second-highest level they've ever been, which is obviously bad, but at least they're not rising any more. The end of the rapid rise coincides with the reinstatement of mask orders. My guess is that masks have something to do with it, but don't entirely explain the change in trajectory. Rather, the mask orders themselves are a clear signal to the public to change behavior again: to reduce movement and public mixing, to keep their distance from people not in their "bubble" and, yes, to wear a mask in indoor public places. All of those, together, likely helped stem the tide. In any case, the leveling off of new cases means that if we can hold on a week or two, our hospitals may get some relief. But the beginning of school is a major wildcard in all of this.

The Good: The infection reproduction rate, Rt, fell from 1.3 to 1.0 over the past two weeks. That's consistent with new cases leveling off. Missouri's Rt is below 1 now (0.94) which could mean they're finally on the back end of the Delta variant wave, which has been just devastating there. We're a couple weeks behind them in Kansas, but we have a slightly higher vaccination rate, so maybe our wave will end up being less extreme.

The Bad: Hospital ICU capacity statewide rose from 22% to 24% over the past two weeks, according to the Kansas Hospital Association, but things were still fairly dire in Kansas' largest metro areas. The Kansas City area and southeast Kansas were down to 19% capacity, northeast Kansas (including Topeka) was down to 15%, and south-central Kansas (including Wichita) was down to 16%. Sedgwick County's ICUs hit their normal capacity on Aug. 9 and have been operating on "surge" plans since then.  In fact, according to the governor, six of the state's largest hospitals are now at their regular ICU capacity. Lots of health workers in this state need a break. Our total COVID-19 hospitalizations are still increasing at a rate of around 100 per week (up to 728 this week versus 526 two weeks ago). It's good that that rate is no longer accelerating, but we need to see it go down.

The Ugly: Test positivity rose from 21.8% to 38.8% in the past two weeks, according to Johns Hopkins. You may recall that I had doubts about the accuracy of that 21.8% figure, though, because it was such a steep drop from the week below. Take that week out, and it's up to 38.8% from 33.7% three weeks ago, which seems more likely than wild swings week-to-week. Either way, still not good. I do wonder, though, if the rise of at-home tests is making it harder to get a good handle on test positivity. People who test negative at home are unlikely to report that to their health care provider, while those who test positive will probably seek out a publicly recorded test in order to confirm the positive.