Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 78

 

Things are still pretty dire, but there are signs that the awful wave we're in may have finally peaked, especially in the KC area. New cases are coming down from the crazy highs of a week or two ago, and COVID hospitalizations also are flat this week compared to last week (though still extremely high — at or near the highest they've ever been). 

The Good: Test positivity fell from 43.4% to 36.8% this week, according to Johns Hopkins. That's still quite high, and sixth-worst in the country (behind Alaska, New Jersey, Utah, Tennessee and Alabama). But it's a definite step in the right direction.

The Bad: The infection reproduction rate, Rt, remains at 1.1. That would mean that cases are still increasing, albeit slowly. There is a lag in this measurement, however, and I'm cautiously optimistic that if we have another week of lower total positive tests and lower test positivity, Rt will go below 1.0.

The Ugly: Hospitalizations, while not higher than last week, are still really, really high. Here's how it breaks down:

• Statewide COVID hospitalizations went from 1,258 to 1,243 this week, according to the Kansas Hospital Association.

• Statewide cases in ICU went from 279 to 250. 

• COVID hospitalizations in the Wichita area rose from 277 to 294, but cases in ICU fell from 80 to 72.

• COVID hospitalizations in the KC area (bistate) fell from 1,371 to 1,224 and cases in ICU fell from 250 to 220. 

• Overall ICU availability in the KC area rose from about 11.4% to about 13.7%, but regular hospital beds remained at about 15% capacity available. Basically, there's a little bit more cushion in KC this week, but not much.