Kansas COVID Update, Week 81

New cases and hospitalizations continue to fall rapidly. Kansas is still at a "high" transmission level under the CDC's guidance, but so is every other state except Maryland. We're moving in the right direction. As seen in other countries, the omicron wave is receding as quickly as it came. By mid-March we should be in really good shape.

The Good: Test positivity dropped again, from 22.1% to 16.2%, according to Johns Hopkins. I honestly can't remember the last time it was that low. Kansas is now eighth-worst in the nation. Still need more testing.

The Also-Good: Hospitalizations continue to plummet: 

• Statewide COVID hospitalizations fell from 889 to 639 this week, according to the Kansas Hospital Association.
• Statewide cases in ICU fell from 203 to 119. 
• COVID hospitalizations in the Wichita area fell from 218 to 137, and cases in ICU fell from 54 to 45. Both Wichita hospitals are still managing through contingency plans, but they have now moved their status from "critical" to "cautious" for the first time in months. 
• COVID hospitalizations in the KC area (bistate) fell from 922 to 671 and cases in ICU fell from 179 to 114. 
• Overall ICU availability in the KC area rose from about 14.7% to 19.2%. But regular hospital bed availability stayed steady at about 15%. We are probably still working through a lot of delayed medical care, and even after the omicron surge has fully petered out, it will take time to catch up on that and ease bed space.

The Not-As-Good: The infection reproduction rate, Rt, rose from 0.64 to 0.69 this week. The Rt seems to be fluctuating a lot in the past couple weeks as the surge dissipates. I think it's very possible that last week's number was a bit artificially low and 0.69 represents a data correction more than a trend toward more transmission. In any case, both 0.64 and 0.69 are good numbers that will continue the rapid downward trend of total cases.