Friday, July 3, 2009

Feeling the draft

OK, so when the T-Wolves drafted point guards with their first three picks (No. 5, 6 and 18) at first I wondered if Kevin McHale had somehow grabbed the reins again and was intent on dragging the team back to NBA Draft hell (see William Avery, Ndudi Ebi, Rashad McCants, trading Brandon Roy for Randy Foye).

But after looking over the full results of the draft, I don't feel quite so infuriated. The thing is, there just wasn't a whole lot of eye-popping talent in this draft. The Wolves passed on a few interesting guys like Jordan Hill and Stephen Curry, and a few raw prospects with star potential like DeMar DeRozan and Austin Daye. But all of them were flawed. No sure things.

Obviously the Wolves were looking for their "point guard of the future" in this draft. But it was a good move to trade the one they got at No. 18, Ty Lawson, for a future first-round pick. More likely than not, it will come in a more talent-laden draft.

That leaves the No. 5 pick, Ricky Rubio, and the No. 6, Jonny Flynn. Both have their flaws. Rubio's biggest flaw is that he may never play for the Wolves. The 18-year-old Spanish heartthrob has expressed some serious reserve about leaving his European team for Minnesota. Not shocking, really, coming from a young guy who has spent his whole life in a country that usually only sees snow high in the Pyrenees.

If Rubio does suit up for the Wolves, he would at least put much-needed butts in the seats. He's been playing pro since he was 14, he got international exposure in the Olympics and he was arguably the most-hyped player in the draft. Whether his presence would result in a lot more wins is debatable. Rubio is flashy — he handles the ball like it's part of his body and has court vision that gives him that rare "oooh, aaaah" passing ability. But he's also skinny, not particularly fast and not a particularly great shooter.

He's certainly got potential. If he hits the weights hard for a couple of years and works on his shot he could be a Jason Kidd-type. Otherwise he'll remain a defensive liability and an offensive novelty.

Rubio is a reach that could be a jackpot. If he works out he could work out huge. If he busts he could really, really bust. That's where the Flynn pick comes in. Flynn doesn't have the upside, the intrigue, the flashy game or the international following. But he's a solid, safe pick. He's shorter than Rubio, but he's strong, fast and proven. He's not a great 3-point shooter, but he's a great defender who can create off the dribble for himself or teammates. Best of all, at Syracuse last year he had a habit of coming up big in big games (25 pts, 5 assists vs. KU; 24 pts, 6 assists at Memphis; 34 pts, 11 assists vs. UConn in the Big East tourney).

If Rubio signs with the Wolves they've got an exciting, talismanic new face with Flynn as a valuable back-up plan. If he doesn't sign they should at least get good value because they own his rights. Then they go all-in with Flynn. Either way they've given themselves a major upgrade at point guard (not a huge accomplishment — Sebastian Telfair is easily upgrade-able). Throw in Wayne Ellington as a spot-up shooter to replace Mike Miller with the 28th pick and the T-Wolves did alright for themselves. It's not the type of draft that will overhaul the squad and put it in the playoffs immediately. But it was a decent "slowly-building-a-winner" type draft, which is what they really needed. And getting that in this year's weak draft was no easy task.

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