Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 33

Last week I said I was cautiously optimistic about where we were in Kansas, but still saw several pitfalls that could cause another COVID-19 wave here (re-openings, coronavirus variants and March Madness gatherings). This week I'm re-upping those concerns. The steep decline in new cases seems to be leveling off, not only in Kansas but nationwide (this New York Times article is a really good explainer of where we're at and what it could mean for the immediate future). If we can stay at this level we're probably OK in a macro sense — there will be more deaths but our health care system will be able to handle the flow of patients. But as we've seen, the coronavirus doesn't usually stay at one level for long. It spreads in waves, and if you're not on the downswing, you're probably not far from the upswing (unless you can get cases to a low enough level that you can test, trace and isolate everyone who's exposed, and we're definitely not there yet).

The Good: Test positivity in Kansas is down! It's below 20% for the first time in months, according to Johns Hopkins, clocking in at 17.6%. Last week it was 22.1%, the worst mark in the country. This week's number is better than four other states (Idaho, South Dakota, Iowa and Alabama). We must be doing a better job of testing. It's possible this coincides with more schools and colleges opening for in-person instruction. Education has generally been among the most diligent industries when it comes to testing. 

The Bad: The infection reproduction rate is up a bit this week, from 0.82 to 0.83. This is not a big jump, and 0.83 is still a really good number. The question is, will it stay there? The lifting of restrictions on bars, restaurants and general gatherings, in addition to new, more contagious variants means the number is likely to rise. What will help keep it down? The same things we've been doing (avoiding gatherings, especially indoors; wearing masks, especially multi-layered well-fitting ones) as well as vaccinations, vaccinations, vaccinations. The data is still preliminary, but so far it looks like several vaccine reduce transmission of the virus as well as reducing illness.

The Ugly: Hospital ICU capacity was down again this week, from 31% to 30%, according to the Kansas Hospital Association. Again, not a huge drop, but the trend is bad. And when you look deeper into the data there's a regional trouble spot: south-central Kansas, aka the Wichita area, which was down to 14% availability this week. That's a little concerning. Just last week Wichita's ICUs dropped below capacity (208 beds) for the first time in months. This week they're trending back toward full, going from 190 patients to 193.  Health care workers there must be exhausted and we haven't left much of a cushion to protect against another wave.