Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 37

 

The next COVID-19 surge is coming. About half the states are now reporting rising case numbers, and overall cases are now rising nationwide again for the first time in months. In the states that have it worst right now, like Michigan, it seems pretty clear that new variants are driving the surge. We know those variants have already appeared in the metro areas of Kansas: Wichita, Kansas City, and now Lawrence. We don't know how much they've spread yet. Last week's metrics looked really good. But there are signs in the data this week that we're losing those gains.

The Good: The infection reproduction rate rose from 0.86 to 0.92 this week. That's not a good trend, but I'm sort of grasping for good signs this week and 0.92 is still a pretty encouraging number, if we can keep it there (or lower). Right now we're in a sustainable position in terms of our health care system and as long as we keep Rt below 1.0, it should stay sustainable. 

The Bad: Hospital ICU capacity fell from 34% to 28% statewide this week, according to the Kansas Hospital Association. Every region is still at 17% or more capacity, so it's not critical, but the cushion is not huge and it appears to be getting smaller. The number of Kansans currently hospitalized with COVID, is still relatively low (about 280, compared to well over 1,000 throughout most of November, December and January). But it appears to be increasing again.

The Ugly: Test positivity rose from 11.6% to 15.5% this week, according to Johns Hopkins. That's a pretty big jump, and Kansas is now third-highest in the country, behind Idaho and Iowa. We're not getting tested enough. That's makes it harder to recognize the surge when it comes, and delays any response to it.