Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 42

The data points are confusing this week. New cases appear to be rising, even though testing is falling, which is a bad combo. Yet the estimated reproduction rate (Rt) has gone down. Hospitalizations appear to have gone up (according to KDHE), and yet it's hard to confirm because the Kansas Hospital Association hasn't updated its data since April 23, and capacity still seems strong. 

The Good: The estimated infection reproduction rate dropped from 1.1 to 0.97. That's great, if accurate. But I'm a little skeptical, given the trends in new cases and hospitalizations. The Wichita area in particular seems to be on a concerning trajectory of new cases. It's very possible that this number is artificially depressed due to lack of testing. But on its face, it's good.

The Bad: Hospital ICU capacity was 36% (with 135 hospitals reporting) as of April 28, according to KDHE. That's a good number, but the COVID-specific trends are bad. COVID-related hospitalizations and ICU admissions, while both still much lower than they were in the winter, are trending up. 

The Ugly: Test positivity rose from 11.3% to 13.8% this week, according to Johns Hopkins. That's third-worst in the country behind Idaho and Iowa. And it's no surprise, given that some Kansas parents are apparently refusing to get their kids tested, even if they're symptomatic, because they don't want to the deal with the hassles of isolation if the kids test positive. We're all tired of COVID mitigation measures, but that's just irresponsible and selfish (not to mention potentially bad for the kid's health. There are some treatments for COVID now, if it's confirmed).