Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 62

New cases continue to fall, especially in the Kansas City area. In Kansas as a whole, the average number of daily cases for the 14 days leading up to Sept. 28 was down 22% from the two weeks before that. We're clearly on the downslope of the Delta wave, although we're still absorbing a relatively  large number of deaths from that wave.

The Good: Hospital ICU capacity continues to improve. About 17% of ICU beds on the Kansas side of the KC metro were available this week (up from 11% the week before). Wichita ICUs were still overcapacity but ICU beds taken up by COVID patients fell (from 79 to 73) for the first time in a month.   Total COVID hospitalizations statewide have fallen to 600 after several weeks above 700. To be clear, these numbers themselves are not "good." But the trend is. 

The Bad: The infection reproduction rate, Rt, rose from 0.85 to 0.93 this week. If that's accurate, that's a bad trend. But I wonder if there was a data fluke last week. Two weeks ago the Rt was also 0.93, and when it fell to 0.85, that seems like a pretty dramatic decline to me. If last week's figure was wrong, then the Rt has basically stayed the same, which is not great, but it's tolerable because it's below 1.0.

The Ugly: Test positivity rose from 27.9% to 28.3% this week, according to Johns Hopkins. Obviously it's not a big increase, but it's already a high number — sixth-highest in the country behind Idaho, Iowa, South Dakota, Alabama and Oklahoma. Those are obviously all states with large rural spaces (as is Kansas) where it might be tough to find testing unless you're already in the hospital, where you're more likely to test positive. 

Bonus: School is in session, and obviously there's a lot of questions about whether kids who are eligible (currently those 12 and up, with those 5-11 still probably a month away from eligibility) should get vaccinated against COVID. Some parents may be afraid of their kids contracting myocarditis from the vaccine. Myocarditis, or inflammation of the heart, is a known side effect of the mRNA (Moderna and Pfizer) shots. While it's usually recoverable and not serious, it's understandably scary. Here's what you need to know: the odds of getting myocarditis from COVID-19 is much greater than the odds of getting it from the vaccine. At the highest estimate, vaccine-induced myocarditis happens about 0.0047% of the time (47 cases for every 1 million second doses). Meanwhile, myocarditis occurs in about 0.146% cases of COVID. Or about 30x more often.

Double bonus: I have started a Facebook group for pro-vaccine Kansans to organize and stay up-to-date on anti-vaccine lobbying in Topeka. It is a public group, so feel free to join and invite your friends.