Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 66

We're at a plateau right now. New cases have leveled off and may even be rising again slightly. Hospitalizations are also barely going down now. I'm  concerned about the news coming out of Colorado, where new cases and hospitalizations are causing a health care crunch. That will affect western Kansas, not only as the virus spreads across state lines, but also as Kansans who depend on large hospitals in Denver for high-level care find it more difficult to get transferred there.

The Good: The infection reproduction rate, Rt, fell from 1.1 to 1.0 this week. That means that each new infection only causes one additional infection, which means the pandemic would stay stable right at the level it's currently at. But we're still currently at a relatively high level of spread in Kansas (almost 10 times higher than we were in early June, before the Delta surge). So this is not where we want to level off.

The Bad: Total COVID hospitalizations statewide have stagnated, falling only from 461 to 454 this week, according to the Kansas Hospital Association. As of Oct. 28, hospitals in the Kansas City area remained pretty much right at 20% ICU availability, which is manageable but not much of a cushion. Hospitals in the Wichita area are still over their normal ICU capacity, but the good news is COVID hospitalizations there fell from 150 to 133 and cases in ICU fell from 62 to 50 this week. 

The Ugly: Test positivity rose from 30.3% to 33.2% this week, according to Johns Hopkins. Very high and getting higher. Only Idaho, Iowa and Oklahoma are worse.