Kansas COVID-19 Update, Week 67

We continue to be in sort of a holding pattern in terms of new cases. After a steady decline through the month of September, we've been at essentially the same rate for more than a month. That rate is nowhere near last year's November/December surge, or even this summer's Delta surge, but it's still pretty high: about 1,000 new cases per day, in a state of 3 million people. That's far too many for us to trace and isolate, like we would with infectious diseases like measles. But the good news is that hospitalizations continue to fall, and a new drug that should keep more COVID patients out of hospital beds is on the way.  

The Good: Total COVID hospitalizations statewide fell from 454 to 402 this week, according to the Kansas Hospital Association. That's much better than the week before, when the number barely moved. Sedgwick County's ICUs remain over normal capacity, but their COVID hospitalizations fell from 133 to 113 this week. Unfortunately, cases in ICU only dropped from 50 to 48. ICU availability in the Kansas City metro rose from 20% to about 22.5% this week. Not a huge jump, but it's the right direction.

The Bad: The infection reproduction rate, Rt, once again stayed the same at 1.0. That tracks with our steady case rates. New cases won't fall until we get Rt below 1.

The Ugly: Test positivity stayed basically the same, going from 33.2% to 33.0%, according to Johns Hopkins. Still fourth-worst in the country behind Idaho, Iowa and Oklahoma. With Rt hovering right at 1.0, it would be nice if we could be more confident that we're testing enough to catch most infections. But we're not. 

Bonus: Colorado continues to feel a major hospital bed crunch, with only about 100 ICU beds available across the entire state (a population of almost 6 million, and more if you include all of the people who live in rural parts of surrounding states like Kansas and rely on places like Denver and Grand Junction for ICU care). COVID-19 is not the only thing driving the bed space shortage there, but it's definitely a factor. And it should be much less of one. About 35% of Coloradoans (the unvaccinated) currently account for about 80% of all COVID hospitalizations. Which suggests you have a much, much lower risk of hospitalization if you've been vaccinated. It's the same story all over. In the country of Luxembourg, the 30% of the population that's unvaccinated accounts for 82% of COVID hospitalizations. In Sedgwick County, the 37% of the population that's unvaccinated accounts for 88% of COVID hospitalizations. We have the tools to solve this problem. We just need to convince more people to use them.